Selecting regional climate models based on their skill could give more credible precipitation projections over the complex Southeast Asia region

Abstract This study focuses on future seasonal changes in daily precipitation using Regional Climate Models (RCMs) from the Coordinated Downscaling Experiments-Southeast Asia ensemble (CORDEX-SEA). Projections this RCM generally show a larger inter-model spread winter than summer, with higher significance and model agreement summer over most land areas. We evaluate how well RCMs simulate climatological two skill metrics. To extract reliable projections, sub-ensembles of ‘better’ ‘worse’ performing models are selected their respective projections compared. find projected intensification northern SEA, which is robust across RCMs. On contrary, southern part projects significant widespread decrease rainfall intensity whereas slight by ensemble. Further exploration differences reveals that these mainly explained moisture supply large-scale sources (i.e., convergence) enhanced effects local evapotranspiration). The project greater atmospheric circulation compared models, can explain uncertainty for CORDEX-SEA domain. Hence, our findings might help assess more SEA region selecting based two-step evaluation: ability to historical performance reproducing key physical processes regional climate.